Both Deadspin and Yglesias are defending Bill Belichick's bone-headed decision to go for it on 4th and 2 from inside the Patriots' own thirty yard line. Both link to this seemingly unassailable proof at Advanced NFL Stats:
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP [win probability]
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
"Lies, damned lies and statistics!" I say. Leave the actuarial mumbo jumbo to baseball; take a step back, and look at the big picture. The Patriots weren't playing teams called "Historical" or Typically." They were playing the undefeated Colts. Team Historical has started David Carr. Team Colts starts Peyton Manning. Maybe it would be worth the risk to give team Typical the ball with a short field and the game on the line, but not the Indianapolis Colts.
Did someone say "risk?" Aha! I see your algebra, and raise you some philosophy. Consider Pascal's wager. As you can tell from the graphic, Pascal attempted to show that belief in God was prudent because the worst case scenario of serving God (missing out on all that Saturday night sin and Sunday morning tee times for nothing cuz God don't exist) is not nearly as bad as the worst case scenario of not serving God (going to hell if he does exist).
Now, apply the same logic to the game Sunday night. The worst case scenario of going for it (giving Peyton a short field with the game on the line) is far worse than punting (giving Peyton a long field with the game on the line). Yes it would have been great if they'd made it, but is that a risk you really want to take?
In fact, we wouldn't be having this conversation if any other coach had gone for it on 4th and 2. This is all about the Cult of Belichick's painfully public failure to adjust in the face of massive cognitive dissonance. The Cult of Belichick says, "If Belichick made the call, it must be a good call because Belichick is the apotheosis of NFL coaching awesomeness." Ask yourself, If Jim Zorn had made this call, would it have been just as good a call? That's what I thought.
Please, spare me this strange Boston sports bar nominalism.
Recent Comments