The conventional wisdom is wrong. There is no anti-incumbent mood in the electorate. But there is an anti-moderation mood in the electorate.
A couple of weeks ago in Utah, Republicans rejected conservative stalwart Bob Bennett in favor of a far right challenger because Bennett once played footsie with Ron Wyden on health care reform. And for Kentucky's GOP voters, being right wing isn't enough. You have to bring the Tea Party craziness to the stump if you want to carry the Republican standard--which is what Rand Paul did.
Mutatis mutandis the Democrats. MoveOn and Daily Kos Democrats have long demanded that Democrats quit the triangulation and sharpen their partisan swords. Now they have sufficient numbers and money to mount successful primary challenges to Democratic lawmakers who aren't progressive enough. So Arlen Specter, who once professed a man crush for Clarence Thomas, is toast, and Blanche Lincoln, who dithered on Democrats' 70 year-long dream of universal health insurance, is in a run-off with a liberal challenger.
Another factor might be age. Bennett is 78. Specter is 80. Re-electing those guys would mean that in six years Utah and Pennsylvania would be represented by men the age of Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd at the end of their careers. Maybe not every state is as open to electing geezers as South Carolina and West Virginia, and that's probably a good thing. Octogenarians ought to be bouncing great-grandkids on their knee, not legislating.
At any rate, next year's Senate will certainly be more closely divided and more ideologically polarized. If you think that this session's gridlock has been frustrating, you ain't seen nothing yet.
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