The other day I saw President Obama telling someone that while some are thinking about the next election, he's been thinking about the next generation. That's about right. Obama's legislative achievements are not only breathtaking in scope, but their full impact won't be felt for years, nor will a proper assessment be possible before then.
Consider:
- The Affordable Care Act. A bunch of popular reforms went into effect last week, but the real deal, the mandate to buy private insurance and subsidies for those who can't afford it, won't take effect until 2014. It'll be a decade before we can compare the physical and financial health of the country under universal coverage to the status quo.
- The Stimulus. A Time magazine cover story last month fairly glowed with praise for what the Stimulus will do for medical research, education and curbing global warming. But it was advertised as a jobs bill, and while better than nothing, it's impact will be felt in the next decades, not in next month's unemployment numbers.
- Sentencing reform. Congress brought penalties for crack cocaine (which African Americans tend to use) down to the levels of powder cocaine (which white Americans tend to use). I think that not locking up another generation of black men and throwing away the key can't help but be a good thing.
- Student loan reform. Congress cut out the middle man (the evil banks). The feds will loan money to students directly. This will save a ton of money, and make a college education more accessible to more people. That won't create jobs today, tomorrow or next year. But in a decade?
- The Wars. Obama said he was going to shift the focus to Afghanistan, and get us out of Iraq. He's kept his word. And I imagine that he'll keep his word about getting out of Afghanistan after this one last offensive. This is the big question mark in Obama's legacy, I think. If the Taliban return to power and Al Qaida re-open their little shop of horrors, Obama's strategy will be judged a failure. Then again, given the emergence of home-grown Islamic extremists, defeating the Taliban over there won't necessarily eliminate the threat here. In the long run, the Israeli-Palesinian peace talks may be more important than the war. That situation is a boil. Lance it, in the form of a lasting peace, and you'll drain the Middle East of the resentment against the West that feeds terrorism.
- Financial reform. Good thing. But it's not the kind of thing that gets you any glory today. If there are no financial panics over the next 25 years as a result, historians will praise you. But there's no electoral payoff.
It's football season. We can think about this in sports terms. Teams in a death spiral usually choose one of two options. They can jury-rig one last playoff appearance by paying through the nose for some 34-year-old former All-Pro free agent, or they can trade away all their high-priced but aging talent for draft picks. It'll mean a couple of dreadful seasons, but if you draft well, today's pain means tomorrow's gain.
The President has chosen the second strategy. Watch this and tell me that Jimmy Johnson doesn't sound like Barack Obama. You can even think of Herschell Walker as the enormous reservoir of good will that Obama entered the White House with, which he traded away for the above legislation. Now, whether Health Care Reform and the Stimulus turn out to be Russell Maryland and Alvin Harper or JaMarcus Russell and Ryan Leaf, only time will tell. But sure, I'm a Democrat; I think it'll work out.
What I don't like is how they sold the Stimulus as a jobs bill, a long term fix as a short term fix. That's like drafting Jimmy Clausen or Tim TeBow, and promising that he's going to lead the team to the playoffs this year.
The question is, Will voters give Obama time? Rebuilding tests fans' patience; a recession as long and as deep as this one tests voters' patience in much more tangible way.
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